Sudden fears


I am someone that doesn’t mind talking about or even believing in bleak outcomes when it comes to the future of humanity. In my all-time favorite movie the main character is asked “If you were to meet these [aliens], and were permitted only one question to ask of them, what would it be?”. She answers: “Well, I suppose it would be, how did you do it? How did you evolve, how did you survive this technological adolescence without destroying yourself?”.

It can be talked about, argued, discussed and whatever people want to do, but I am not alone in thinking that if we continue on this current path, we will eventually destroy ourselves.

Yet for all the times I’ve talked, thought or read about this, I never feared the future. But now, for the first time, I fear for mankind’s future. It sounds strange, it’s not up to me to carry the weight of the world. But I have to admit: I am a dreamer. In my sci-fi, I like a utopian future as much as a dystopian one. I loved the 90’s Star Trek not only because of the sci-fi, but also the idea it puts forward. That we can overcome our destructive nature, that we can work towards a shared goal, that we can continually try to better ourselves for the future of humanity, instead of being consumed by the petty needs that drive our current society.

But alas, I am part of this society. I want things, I buy things, I crave things. But I still have my dreams. They will never come true, that’s for sure. But I guess that’s why I like sci-fi so much: it gives my mind the opportunity to live inside a different world. A world in which we might be heading for world war three, or one in which we’ve conquered our destructive nature and are working towards a better future. Obviously a story in a true utopia would be boring; the reader still needs things to which he can relate. Modern sci-fi is pretty good at extrapolating our current situation and creating a new world around a mixture of negative and positive effects of a technologically advanced civilization.

But because of these dreams, and because of my love for the ‘things that might be’, I am now for the first timed worried about our future. There are many opinions about where this economic crisis is headed, and because of this, it is very difficult to know what’s really ahead. I guess the bottom line is that nobody really knows. It could turn out okay in the end, but we could also be heading for a major recession, or even a depression. If the latter occurs, I’m not so sure that everyone alive today will live through it.

This might all sound very pessimistic. Perhaps I’ve read too many sci-fi stories in which humanity has endured countless (interplanetary) wars. Perhaps I’ve seen too many movies in which a third world war is fought. I don’t know why exactly, but stories like that intrigue me. Simply because the past is the past: it has already happened. I like knowing things about the past (history was one of my favorite subjects in high school), yet I like the future more because we don’t know what’s going to happen. You look at the past and try to extrapolate what will happen if certain things occur. And if this depression happens, I think the world will soon be a very, very different place.

People often underestimate how much wealth we’ve accumulated in the past century. The 1930’s were bad, sure. But the west now has such a high standard of living, that I doubt most of us are ready for a depression. I think that a depression today would be many times worse than what happened back then. And because of that, it is my believe that some, but not all, countries or leaders will fight to preserve their way of life. When the shit really hits the fan, people (=countries) will do anything to safeguard the things they find most precious. And in a depression, this will probably be resources. Food. Maybe even oil.

Even if this recession or depression turns out to be a mild one, and the west manages to ’stay alive’, third world countries will still suffer. International aid to these countries will certainly diminish greatly, or maybe even come to a complete halt. It’s every country for himself. If the west has to choose between feeding Africa or itself, it will certainly pick itself.

It’s really not that I want any of these things to happen. Like I said, I am a dreamer. I dream about radical changes to the world we live in. Changes that will almost certainly never happen, at least not in my lifetime. And because of this, I probably shouldn’t even be thinking about bleak outcomes like these. But dreamers have nightmares, too. And that’s what this is, a nightmare. I really don’t think about this every day. This is just something that recently occured to me. I don’t even know if what I just wrote makes sense to anyone besides me. Perhaps I’m overreacting, and perhaps I have too little faith in our society. Perhaps we’ll manage to stave off disaster, or manage to avoid death and destruction even if disaster strikes.

In any case, I really hope he’s right. And even if he is, 200 years is a long, long time. I just hope we’ll stay alive just a little bit longer. Just long enough for his vision to come true.

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I was a bit surprised about the transition of your essay from humanity destroying itself into the current economic crisis. Do you posses Fortis stocks you didn’t tell us about? ;)

I am familiar with the theory that the next centuries will be vital because humanity has thereafter overcome most of it’s own threat. I’m not convinced however, different ideologies will remain and may still lead to wars fatal to the earth.

I’ve once read about research spanning thousands of years, that shows a correlation between war and food shortage. With current technology and diversity of food sources I don’t foresee a problem for developed countries.
Still there are other issues that might lead to international conflicts, like the climate crisis. If I look at the amount of Brazilian rain forests chopped down I wouldn’t mind sending our army over there! I think there are more important issues than increasing the world population and wealth of every inhabitant. With wars pending for a long time and widespread planet killing technology humanity is not safe for a long time.

The thing about both optimism and pessimism is that neither has particular strong ties with reality or predictive capabilities with respect to reality. Both shift as reality advances.
This does not mean that we cannot say anything about future developments at all, but we must be sure to base it on facts and rational extrapolations rather than fear or exuberance, both resulting in the expectation that we will continue in the current direction (either worse or better).

I do not have too much faith in the predictions of people who talk in absolute terms about the future, since they already have discounted the possibility that they could be wrong. They are thus no longer objectively evaluating their ideas, but rather are looking just for validations, basically anything that supports their idea.
I also pay little attention to long term predictions. If history has shown us anything, then it is that predicting the far future is something people are quite bad at. Since we have a severe shortage of reliable facts about the future, most of these predictions tend to be based on either long term pessimism or optimism.

Though it can be exciting to think about it, we must not forget the now and try to make the most of this.

If history has shown us anything, then it is that predicting the far future is something people are quite bad at.
`History tends to repeat itself` is another well known statement: the ancient cycle of dark and golden ages. The future of basic agrarian societies can be predicted using mathematical models to a certain extend. However, the world has changed dramatically so these models are likely not applicable to predict our future. In the far future researchers may find the new variables in this equation. For now it’s mainly speculation.

I agree with Matthijs his view on optimists and pessimists, predictions should be based upon facts and rational extrapolations. I do speculate myself, but that’s only for the fun of it. However, there are certain potential conflicts for the near future that should deserve some attention as they might effect our lives.

We should always take every scenario into account, in particular if it could affect us in a significant way. However, we should do this with reason, and keep the distinction between the chance that it will actually happen and how significant the impact would be if it were to happen.

Ivan: yes, I diverged a bit from my original subject: the effects of the current economic crisis. No matter :)

It’s a given that we have to be reasonable and that our optimism and pessimism is based on the current situation. Extrapolating the current situation and trying to predict the future is very difficult. I know that what I do is just theorizing. Theorizing what might happen or what I expect to happen. But even that doesn’t mean that I truly believe it will happen, it’s just that I want to put forward what so many don’t even want (or dare) to talk about.